For the first time in months, it seems as if Lebanon’s internal security situation is improving – albeit marginally. As of the writing of this article, 25 Lebanese soldiers are still being held captive by Islamist extremists on the Syrian border, and threats from fundamentalist groups remain a distinct and ever-present danger, especially in the Bekaa and its surroundings.
Yet Daesh and its counterparts – who at one time had hoped to exploit the concerns of Lebanon’s oft-disaffected Sunni population into material gains – have so far failed miserably in their attempt to establish a caliphate in the country. Lebanon’s security forces – aided, for better or for worse, by a still-thriving Hezbollah – have performed commendably in countless operations against takfiri militants, who have seen many of their original goals dashed.
However, as threats against Lebanon’s territorial integrity diminish, the Syrian refugee question will rise to the forefront as Lebanon’s chief political and socioeconomic issue. Recently, the country’s security apparatus has increased its presence on the border, as fears of militant crossings have led the Lebanese government to tighten restrictions on the throngs of Syrians still fleeing the country’s ongoing civil war.
These restrictions are too little, too late for a country already overwhelmed with more than 1 million registered refugees. Already-poor conditions within refugee camps are deteriorating as Lebanon’s infrastructure strains to handle the massive influx of Syrians. The international community has given Lebanon barely half of the approximately $1.5b in aid money it has requested to deal with the pressures of hosting such a massive population[1],and living conditions among refugees are reflecting the massive imbalance in funds.
The swift succession of winter storms that has buffeted Lebanon’s mountains has spelled even more trouble for Syrians, many of whom are still living in tents and other makeshift dwellings. While Lebanon braves through one of its worst winters in recent memory, aid organizations have been forced to cut their commitments to refugees in the wake of budget cuts. As a result, “a significant number of children have died of hypothermia” in camps such as Qaneyya in the North of the country, while the same families contend with a dearth in basic necessities such as food, medicine, and heating fuel[2].
Many average Lebanese have attempted to personally aid refugees, donating food and fuel to families and in some cases even inviting them to stay in their homes. Yet in a country with no strong political structure nor immediate hope of economic improvement, the Lebanese people are embroiled in their own quagmire. Moreover, it is impossible to ignore the shameful anti-Syrian, anti-refugee tide that is ever prevalent in the country. Reasons for Lebanese persecution of vulnerable Syrians abound: the refugees are overwhelmingly Sunni, a fact which surely reminds Christians and Shi’ites of the Palestinian refugees whose arrival in the 1970s helped precipitate the beginning of the Civil War; moreover, Lebanon’s complex and often hostile relationship with Syria has bred more than its fair share of negative stereotypes about its people.
Not all of these concerns are unfounded. If – and it is a big if – Lebanon manages to emerge from the Syrian conflict relatively unscathed, the Syrian Question will undoubtedly become the most dominant issue facing the country. Although it seems obvious that the vast majority of Syrians yearn to return home, the unfortunate consequences of the war mean that many will have no homes to return to. For these refugees, the makeshift camps of Lebanon may very well become permanent dwellings. And as we have seen not only in Ain Al-Hilweh and Nahr el-Bared but also in Tripoli and Sidon, such impoverished, stifling conditions often lead young men down the dangerous path towards militancy and extremism – frequently seen as the only outlet with which to vent one’s anger and frustrations.
Now: the most difficult, most tragic question. Even if aid suddenly does begin to flow to Lebanon’s government, what can the country do in the long term to address the refugee problem? Any attempt to permanently resettle the Syrians within the country would almost undoubtedly fail – its tiny size and delicate sectarian balance render such a strategy an impossibility. Yet any plan to displace or forcibly remove the refugees would likely meet fierce resistance from the Syrians themselves, who would be faced with the terrifying prospect of having truly nowhere to go. In the future, the best solution seems to be to carve out an area of Syria close to the Lebanese border where – under the governance and with the aid of the international community – the refugees could be resettled until their former homes are rendered habitable and free from violence.
This strategy is simply not possible given the current state of Syria, and will likely not be for several years to come. Until then, Syrians in Lebanon will continue to live poor and destitute, their children will continue to die, and the Syrian Question will persist in hanging over the heads of the Lebanese government and its people.
Claude Khalife
[1] http://data.unhcr.org/syrianrefugees/country.php?id=122
[2] http://www.aa.com.tr/en/world/468415--snowstorm-threatens-lives-of-syrian-refugees-in-lebanon